Mediation is a change process whose impact can be felt at different levels of society, measured across time and evaluated from different stakeholders' point of view. For this reason mediators should take an expansive view of success, beyond just the signing of an agreement. The indicators described below should be seen as inter-dependent variables that can help demonstrate a measurable impact on the peace process.

PRE-MEDIATION INDICATORS

• Causes and consequences of the conflict: in his/her initial assessment, a mediator can find a large number of indicators specific to the nature of the conflict. Data about the way the conflict has affected the parties, its root causes and its symptoms, creates a baseline measure of the conflict environment and provides indicators against which to measure change post-intervention.

• Getting to the table: ripening a conflict and getting the parties to agree to mediate is in and of itself a success. Even if the parties do not come up with an agreement the first time around, it opens the door for further negotiations.

PROCESS INDICATORS

• Mediator’s objective: from settlement, to resolution and finally transformation, it's a long road towards sustainable peace. A mediator’s own objectives during the mediation, whether maintaining the current balance of power or his/her hegemony on the region, trying to stop hostilities, or hoping to rebuild relationships and re-align perceptions will determine how he or she qualifies success.

• Participants' perceptions: pre- and post- mediation surveys can measure such things as the belligerents' level of perceived fairness and satisfaction with the process and its outcome. Providing a balanced opportunity for expression to both sides and a mediator's impartiality can in some cultures improve the parties' satisfaction. In other cultures, adherence to traditions and respect for status are process-oriented priorities for participants evaluating the mediation.

• Public statements: as the mediation process is going on, the number and content of press statements released by either party can serve as a measure of progress. The feedback parties give their constituencies or families can also help capture the progress achieved during the mediation.

• Cost: the cost of the mediation is another measure of effectiveness when compared to other forms peace-making interventions such as sanctions or incentives.

SHORT-TERM INDICATORS OF MEDIATION SUCCESS

• Agreement quality and scope: peace agreements are conventionally perceived as tangible measures of mediation success when seeking a settlement, despite the failure of many to be implemented.  The quality of an agreement can be measured by its stability over time. Its scope and relevance to the conflict issues are good indicators of how the mediation fared.

• Incidents and intensity of violence: when concerned with the destructive aspects of a conflict, being able to gage whether conflict generated behaviors have been neutralized, dampened, reduced or eliminated, is critical. Diminishing the intensity of the violence or lengthening the time between violent episodes can also indicate steps in the right direction.

• Conflict issues: measuring the resolution of a conflict necessitates quantifying the impact on the ground of the mediation process and implies tracking criteria that target the economic, social, environmental and political dimensions of the conflict in the short and long-term.

LONG-TERM IMPACT OF MEDIATION ON THE CONFLICT

• Interpersonal relationships: conflict transformation is measured over time by looking at institutional changes, the opportunities provided for healthy intra- and inter-group interactions built on mutual respect and trust and the creation of a narrative, in textbooks, social media and governmental accounts, that describes the upheavals of the past by acknowledging the harm done and the efforts implemented to restore what was broken.

• Structural changes: for peace to take root there are structural changes that need to occur at the government, community and family level. Measuring the health and competence of the legal justice system as well as the effectiveness of traditional conflict resolution mechanisms to be able to identify drivers of tension and respectfully and responsibly address re-emerging conflict issues, is critical for building resilience. If the mediation process focused on restoring relationships, the number of spaces for bridging and bonding social connections, fostering inter-group cooperation, and strengthening state-community relations are also indicators of success. 

• Economic growth: the transformation of common spaces and the promotion of local investments are signs of peace.

Measuring the impact of mediation on the conflict does not need to limit itself to the near-term of what was achieved while the parties were in the same room together. How you evaluate the success of your intervention depends on the depth of your pre-mediation analysis, the time frame under observation and who you ask. To best capture the impact of mediation, mediators should seek out indicators that can paint a broad picture of the ripple effect that dialogue can have on peace, as well as ask their contracting agency, the parties and affected stakeholders: "What would success look like to you?"